- Predicting Hurricanes Through Global Weather Cycling Analysis
April 17, 2020
Predicting Hurricanes Through Global Weather Cycling Analysis
Preparations to save lives and property from hurricanes can be enhanced by better prediction accuracy with longer lead times. This is the objective of the proprietary “ClimatePulse Technology” launched by Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) of Ocala, FL, led by former NOAA meteorologist Professor David Dilley.
The methodology takes into account influences such as intermittent El Niño (area of warm water) and La Niña (area of cool water) occurrences in the Eastern Pacific, water temperature of the Atlantic Ocean and climate pulse (72-year and landfall cycles) to predict hurricane landfalls six months in advance.
The GWO approach successfully predicted six months in advance all nine landfall locations between 2016 and 2019. GWO logged 91 percent accuracy for predicting named storms in the 2019 season and correctly predicted that 2017 and 2018 would be the most dangerous and costly hurricane seasons since 2004 and 2005. GWO’s zone predictions coupled with interactive tracking webinars predicted the true path and landfalls for Category 4 Hurricane Irma in 2017, Category 5 Michael in 2018 and Hurricane Dorian staying east of Florida and hitting North Carolina in 2019.
Dilley reported that several meteorological and climatological factors are in place to produce another above average hurricane season, which will likely be similar to the severe 2004 hurricane season. This prediction includes 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
The 2020-2021 condition is pointing toward an active season due to the 1) warm ocean, 2) no (or very weak) El Nino and 3) 70-year climate pulse, leading to an enhanced hurricane landfall cycle.
"We are coming into a very bad cycle. Bottom line? Don't get caught by surprise," Dilley said. “More of your industry's products are needed.”
The GWO website offers links to tracking webinars (which begin 8 to 16 days prior to landfall of a given hurricane) and ways to access more precise predictions for 11 different coastal zones from Texas to Maine. For more information on the science and on how to obtain specifically tailored forecasts, visit globalweatheroscillations.com.